November 3, 2008
By Joel Persinger
Just because the media is all up in arms over the economy, doesn’t mean that everything is going badly. The economy is having a tough time, but in the real estate world, things are beginning to look up.
The California Association of Realtors recently reported home sales figures for the month of September. According to the Association, “Home sales increased 96.7 percent in September in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home fell 40.9 percent. Statewide sales in September edged past the 500,000 threshold for the first time in more than two years, rising 2.3 percent compared with August and 96.7 percent compared with a year ago.”
C.A.R. President William E. Brown said, “This dramatic increase in sales owes as much to market weakness a year ago in the early stages of the credit crunch, as it does to the growth of sales in September this year. Similar increases occurred in the early 1980s when the market was climbing out of a comparatively steep downturn in sales.
It is true, that much of the increase is due to the terrible condition of the market the previous year, but we should not forget that this year’s market could be just as bad as the previous year’s, but its not! On the contrary, real estate sales are showing the kind of gradual improvement that can be expected when recovering from the damage done by the disintegration of the mortgage market. It may not be anything worth throwing a party over, but its one solid step in the right direction and some believe it is a harbinger of things to come. Association President Brown said, “We expect the market to register significant year-to-year percentage gains in the coming months as current sales are compared against extremely low numbers that prevailed during the fourth quarter of last year.”
Nobody can state definitively that the housing market is on the rebound. There simply is not enough data available to tell. Still, a year over year increase in sales of almost 100 percent in September is unquestionably good news. If nothing else, it tells us that sales are increasing and that the San Diego real estate market, while injured, is not dead!
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Fixing the Housing Market
October 27, 2008
By Joel Persinger
There is an old saying that goes like this, “Lord help us when the day comes that a politician can outthink an entrepreneur.” Over the last seven or eight weeks I have given this saying a great deal of thought. Bank after bank has failed, the stock market has been riding a rollercoaster that has frightened most everyone and politicians everywhere have been promising to fix everything, even though in large part, they helped create the problems in the first place.
All of this turmoil has given rise to an election year in which throngs of people seem to be gravitating toward more and bigger government. But, can the government really fix things? Are politicians truly adept at solving the very problems they bring about? The simple and direct answer to these questions is, “No.” The actions taken by politicians are in direct proportion to the number of votes they feel might be gained or lost as a result. Thus, such actions are generally calculated to make voters happy rather than to offer real solutions. After all, the problem being solved is political damage control.
By contrast, entrepreneurs are always looking for ways to provide solutions to problems in order to make a living by doing so. This means that the solution MUST address a real problem and provide a real, workable solution in order to be a success. This is precisely why there has never been and will never be a politician who can outthink an entrepreneur, and this is precisely what is great about this country. We are a country of inventors, a nation of entrepreneurial thinkers, a people who love a good puzzle and have the talent and skill to solve it. Our forefathers new this and had the good sense to stay out of the way. They knew we needed a government, but they also understood how oppressive governments can be. So, they rebelled against the tyranny of the English aristocracy and created a governmental structure meant to support free thinking and the free flow of the inventive and entrepreneurial spirit that is America.
So, if we fast forward to 2008 and compare the solutions to the problems in our current real estate market, we find that government solutions don’t work any better now than they did when the country was formed. Government, at all levels, has floundered in its attempt to address the issues affecting the real estate market. In fact, while more than one “government bail-out” has been implemented, none have accomplished the goals set out for them. Worse yet, none of these government solutions are self-supporting. They all spend money that the government doesn’t have.
In the meantime, free thinking business folks have hammered out real solutions that work, make money and create jobs. Here are just two examples:
Loan modification: One new company with a mission to negotiate the restructuring of home loans on behalf of homeowners who cannot make their mortgage payments is Debt Advisory Alliance. They are a private company which, by all reports, is having significant success in helping their clients stay in their homes by negotiating a modification of the terms of their home loan directly with the lender. My staff and I attended a meeting with this company last week and we were very impressed!
Short sales: Some enterprising real estate brokers have made a science out of helping people by negotiating directly with the lender in order to get their homes sold for less than what is owed. The key is that some brokers have become experts at this and are quite successful at negotiation away much of the bad consequences that would normally afflict the homeowner after the sale. Such things include, negotiating away the lender’s option to chase the homeowner for the balance of the money owed. Since we work with an investor who buys short sales, this is a good chunk of the business that we do in my office. So, I know that it works.
While nobody has a perfect solution for the problems that face the real estate industry, it has been my experience that quick thinking entrepreneurs will end up providing the answers, while quick talking politicians will only manage to get elected or re-elected. Keeping that in mind when you’re looking for someone to help you or when you’re heading to the ballot box could make finding real help a whole lot easier.
By Joel Persinger
There is an old saying that goes like this, “Lord help us when the day comes that a politician can outthink an entrepreneur.” Over the last seven or eight weeks I have given this saying a great deal of thought. Bank after bank has failed, the stock market has been riding a rollercoaster that has frightened most everyone and politicians everywhere have been promising to fix everything, even though in large part, they helped create the problems in the first place.
All of this turmoil has given rise to an election year in which throngs of people seem to be gravitating toward more and bigger government. But, can the government really fix things? Are politicians truly adept at solving the very problems they bring about? The simple and direct answer to these questions is, “No.” The actions taken by politicians are in direct proportion to the number of votes they feel might be gained or lost as a result. Thus, such actions are generally calculated to make voters happy rather than to offer real solutions. After all, the problem being solved is political damage control.
By contrast, entrepreneurs are always looking for ways to provide solutions to problems in order to make a living by doing so. This means that the solution MUST address a real problem and provide a real, workable solution in order to be a success. This is precisely why there has never been and will never be a politician who can outthink an entrepreneur, and this is precisely what is great about this country. We are a country of inventors, a nation of entrepreneurial thinkers, a people who love a good puzzle and have the talent and skill to solve it. Our forefathers new this and had the good sense to stay out of the way. They knew we needed a government, but they also understood how oppressive governments can be. So, they rebelled against the tyranny of the English aristocracy and created a governmental structure meant to support free thinking and the free flow of the inventive and entrepreneurial spirit that is America.
So, if we fast forward to 2008 and compare the solutions to the problems in our current real estate market, we find that government solutions don’t work any better now than they did when the country was formed. Government, at all levels, has floundered in its attempt to address the issues affecting the real estate market. In fact, while more than one “government bail-out” has been implemented, none have accomplished the goals set out for them. Worse yet, none of these government solutions are self-supporting. They all spend money that the government doesn’t have.
In the meantime, free thinking business folks have hammered out real solutions that work, make money and create jobs. Here are just two examples:
Loan modification: One new company with a mission to negotiate the restructuring of home loans on behalf of homeowners who cannot make their mortgage payments is Debt Advisory Alliance. They are a private company which, by all reports, is having significant success in helping their clients stay in their homes by negotiating a modification of the terms of their home loan directly with the lender. My staff and I attended a meeting with this company last week and we were very impressed!
Short sales: Some enterprising real estate brokers have made a science out of helping people by negotiating directly with the lender in order to get their homes sold for less than what is owed. The key is that some brokers have become experts at this and are quite successful at negotiation away much of the bad consequences that would normally afflict the homeowner after the sale. Such things include, negotiating away the lender’s option to chase the homeowner for the balance of the money owed. Since we work with an investor who buys short sales, this is a good chunk of the business that we do in my office. So, I know that it works.
While nobody has a perfect solution for the problems that face the real estate industry, it has been my experience that quick thinking entrepreneurs will end up providing the answers, while quick talking politicians will only manage to get elected or re-elected. Keeping that in mind when you’re looking for someone to help you or when you’re heading to the ballot box could make finding real help a whole lot easier.
FHA’s New “Hope for Homeowners” Program
October 14, 2008
By Joel Persinger
With all the news about the recent Wall Street bail-out, you may have forgotten the Federal Housing and Economic Recovery Act that was signed into law by President Bush earlier this year. As a quick reminder, this Act was designed to provide ways for struggling homeowners to stay in their homes and avoid foreclosure. One of the key components, which became available this month, is the FHA Hope for Homeowners program.
Hope for Homeowners is a program designed to provide homeowners a way to: reduce the amount they owe on their homes, refinance their existing loans into FHA-insured mortgages, stay in their homes and avoid foreclosure. For lenders, the hope is that this program will provide another viable option for mortgage lenders wishing to avoid costly foreclosures. But, make no mistake, the lenders will take a hit.
Among other things, the program requires mortgage lenders to write off a portion of what is owed to them. This amount could be significant since the program requires the property to be re-appraised. The original lender is then required to “write down” the current loan to a maximum of 90% of the home’s new appraised value. For example, if a lender is owed $500,000 on a home which has been dropped in value to $400,000, the lender would be required to accept 90% of the $400,000 (or $360,000) as full satisfaction for the debt. That means the lender would have to agree to take a $140,000 loss in this example. This may sound ridiculous, but given the losses lenders are currently taking in foreclosure, participating in this program may make good business sense.
At the end of the day the lender at least receives some payment, foreclosure is avoided and the homeowner gets a new, FHA-insured mortgage for around 90% of the home’s current value. Many homeowners may find that this program will work for them and allow them to stay in their homes while reworking their home loan into a much more manageable payment. However, this program will not work for everyone and it does have other requirements and drawbacks.
Among the things homeowners should know are these: only 30-year fixed rate mortgages are offered, the home loan the borrower wishes to replace must have been originated on or before January 1, 2008, the home must be owner-occupied and the original lender must agree to take the loss. In addition, the homeowner must agree to share any current or future equity in the home with the federal government. That means, when the homeowner sells, Uncle Sam is going to take his cut.
For more information on this program, homeowners can call the Hope Now Alliance at 888-995-HOPE or visit the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development website at www.HUD.gov.
By Joel Persinger
With all the news about the recent Wall Street bail-out, you may have forgotten the Federal Housing and Economic Recovery Act that was signed into law by President Bush earlier this year. As a quick reminder, this Act was designed to provide ways for struggling homeowners to stay in their homes and avoid foreclosure. One of the key components, which became available this month, is the FHA Hope for Homeowners program.
Hope for Homeowners is a program designed to provide homeowners a way to: reduce the amount they owe on their homes, refinance their existing loans into FHA-insured mortgages, stay in their homes and avoid foreclosure. For lenders, the hope is that this program will provide another viable option for mortgage lenders wishing to avoid costly foreclosures. But, make no mistake, the lenders will take a hit.
Among other things, the program requires mortgage lenders to write off a portion of what is owed to them. This amount could be significant since the program requires the property to be re-appraised. The original lender is then required to “write down” the current loan to a maximum of 90% of the home’s new appraised value. For example, if a lender is owed $500,000 on a home which has been dropped in value to $400,000, the lender would be required to accept 90% of the $400,000 (or $360,000) as full satisfaction for the debt. That means the lender would have to agree to take a $140,000 loss in this example. This may sound ridiculous, but given the losses lenders are currently taking in foreclosure, participating in this program may make good business sense.
At the end of the day the lender at least receives some payment, foreclosure is avoided and the homeowner gets a new, FHA-insured mortgage for around 90% of the home’s current value. Many homeowners may find that this program will work for them and allow them to stay in their homes while reworking their home loan into a much more manageable payment. However, this program will not work for everyone and it does have other requirements and drawbacks.
Among the things homeowners should know are these: only 30-year fixed rate mortgages are offered, the home loan the borrower wishes to replace must have been originated on or before January 1, 2008, the home must be owner-occupied and the original lender must agree to take the loss. In addition, the homeowner must agree to share any current or future equity in the home with the federal government. That means, when the homeowner sells, Uncle Sam is going to take his cut.
For more information on this program, homeowners can call the Hope Now Alliance at 888-995-HOPE or visit the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development website at www.HUD.gov.
The Bail-Out Passed! Are The Problems Fixed?
October 6, 2008
By Joel Persinger
By late morning on Monday San Diego time, I had received three telephone calls from folks lamenting the fact that the stock market had taken an almost 800 point dive. This, in spite of the fact that the much touted government bail-out plan had actually passed both Houses of Congress just days before. Although I desperately wanted to say, “I told you so,” I decided to wait a bit longer to find out if the markets would level out by the end of the trading day. All things considered, it was worth the wait. By the end of the day the Dow had climbed back up a bit, but still closed down some 328 points and below the 10,000 level for the first time since October 2004.
What this means for real estate in San Diego County remains to be seen. But, what it teaches us about government bail-outs and market reactions would fill volumes. The financial markets react to most things one way or the other and overreact to just about everything. Many thought that passing the bail-out plan would spur Wall Street to new heights based upon a new found confidence in the American and worldwide economies. No such result has materialized. Some seemed to feel that government intervention was a panacea that would cure the ills of suffering homeowners across the nation. I suspect that this will fail to come to pass as a direct result of the bail-out as well.
The unfortunate fact is that government, in most cases, is not the answer to what ails us. Even in the rare instances in which government is the answer, any effect government action such as the bail-out may have doesn’t typically materialize for quite some time. However, there are three things that are fairly certain to come out of such government intervention: Politicians can brag about having done something, money will be skimmed off by the wrong people and probably not get to the right people, and the very practices which got us into this mess in the first place will remain unchanged and unaffected.
If you disagree with my thinking, consider this; the same Congressional leaders who legislated and leveraged us into a high risk system in which borrowers who could not pay the money back were given loans, are still in power today. If that isn’t enough, those same leaders have just been given almost a trillion dollars more to waste. Still, they are only half of the problem. The same average Americans who took out crazy loans so they could use their homes like ATM machines or who lived off of the equity in homes they should never have been able to buy in the first place, are going to have their actions validated and be officially dubbed “victims” by a political process all too eager to buy a vote. Thus, they will not only be allowed to repeat their actions, but will most likely be encouraged to do so once more.
So, if you want a prediction from a fellow who knows real estate, here it is. If you were thinking about buying because prices are low and there are hundreds of distressed homes for sale, have at it. The situation is not likely to change any time soon.
By Joel Persinger
By late morning on Monday San Diego time, I had received three telephone calls from folks lamenting the fact that the stock market had taken an almost 800 point dive. This, in spite of the fact that the much touted government bail-out plan had actually passed both Houses of Congress just days before. Although I desperately wanted to say, “I told you so,” I decided to wait a bit longer to find out if the markets would level out by the end of the trading day. All things considered, it was worth the wait. By the end of the day the Dow had climbed back up a bit, but still closed down some 328 points and below the 10,000 level for the first time since October 2004.
What this means for real estate in San Diego County remains to be seen. But, what it teaches us about government bail-outs and market reactions would fill volumes. The financial markets react to most things one way or the other and overreact to just about everything. Many thought that passing the bail-out plan would spur Wall Street to new heights based upon a new found confidence in the American and worldwide economies. No such result has materialized. Some seemed to feel that government intervention was a panacea that would cure the ills of suffering homeowners across the nation. I suspect that this will fail to come to pass as a direct result of the bail-out as well.
The unfortunate fact is that government, in most cases, is not the answer to what ails us. Even in the rare instances in which government is the answer, any effect government action such as the bail-out may have doesn’t typically materialize for quite some time. However, there are three things that are fairly certain to come out of such government intervention: Politicians can brag about having done something, money will be skimmed off by the wrong people and probably not get to the right people, and the very practices which got us into this mess in the first place will remain unchanged and unaffected.
If you disagree with my thinking, consider this; the same Congressional leaders who legislated and leveraged us into a high risk system in which borrowers who could not pay the money back were given loans, are still in power today. If that isn’t enough, those same leaders have just been given almost a trillion dollars more to waste. Still, they are only half of the problem. The same average Americans who took out crazy loans so they could use their homes like ATM machines or who lived off of the equity in homes they should never have been able to buy in the first place, are going to have their actions validated and be officially dubbed “victims” by a political process all too eager to buy a vote. Thus, they will not only be allowed to repeat their actions, but will most likely be encouraged to do so once more.
So, if you want a prediction from a fellow who knows real estate, here it is. If you were thinking about buying because prices are low and there are hundreds of distressed homes for sale, have at it. The situation is not likely to change any time soon.
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